2024 Recession Risk. We see a 25% chance of recession by the first half of 2024, 45% by the second half of 2024 and 60% by the first half of 2025. In july, the federal reserve staff announced that they were no longer forecasting a recession in 2024, marking a sharp departure from earlier projections.


2024 Recession Risk

And while the fed is eyeing rate cuts this year, the delayed effects of its 5.25 percentage points in hikes are expected to take a. Questions about potential recession risks and the inflation outlook will likely persist.

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